21 C : Results Archive
The aim of this section is to provide information on modelling results against historical data collected within Cockburn Sound and surrounding waters (where available), with outputs of various generations of the CSIEM. The model performance in predicting a range of relevant variables such as salinity, temperature, nitrogen, phosphorus and total chlorophyll-a, are assessed with a set of statistical metrics, and other supporting analyses.
This appendix is in progress during the active development of the model and being updated with the CSIEM modelling as it evolves.
21.1 Synoptic-scale validation
A “high-level” annual-scale analysis of the model is undertaken for each model version during development. This is to provide a synoptic scale assessment of how key variables are predicted with different model configurations.
Time-series validation plots including the statistics for each site are available via the MARVL-VIEWER web-app. The app pull-down menus are organised based on model generation (select a entry with “Validation” to see model outputs).
21.2 Context-specific validation
Context specific validation plots of key metrics are summarised in each chapter, and a quick-reference summary to these is provided in the below table.
Table C.1. Summary of context-specific model validation undertaken within each chapter of the CSIEM Science Manual.
| Validation Area | Notes & References |
|---|---|
| Hydrodynamics | |
| Water level & tides |
Water level has been validated against long-term records from Hillarys and Fremantle boat harbours, and assessed in terms of tidal and sub-tidal variability over many years. Refer to Section 9.5. Water Level Validation Report Card. |
| Temperature (vertical profiles & moorings) |
Mooring and CTD profile comparisons across CS regions. Refer to Section 9.6. Temperature Validation Report Card. |
| Salinity (offshore, nearshore & within CS) | Comparison with DWER-CSMWQ, IMOS, and mooring loggers for offshore, nearshore and within-Sound regions. Refer to Section 9.6. |
| Density structure & stratification | Monthly density profiles at deep-basin sites. Refer to Section 9.10. |
| Currents & residual circulation |
Streamline analysis, ADCP and ADV current comparisons. Refer to Section 9.7. ADCP Validation Report Card. |
| Exchange flows (CS-North transect) | Net weekly flow through NS5 transect; wind vs exchange analysis. Refer to Section 9.8. |
| River plume connectivity | Plume extent vs satellite CDOM imagery (2021); nutrient transport to CS. Refer to Section 9.11 and Chapter 10. |
| D’Adamo regime analysis | Seasonal S–T–ρ regime plot replication for 2021–2023. Refer to Section 9.9. |
| Water Quality | |
| Nutrient concentrations (N, P) |
Synoptic and time-series validation across CS polygons. Refer to Chapter 14. Nutrient Validation Report Card. |
| Chlorophyll-a | Phytoplankton biomass and composition comparisons. Refer to Chapter 14. |
| Dissolved oxygen |
Bottom-water DO comparisons with mooring data. Refer to Chapter 14. Mooring DO Report Card. |
| Light attenuation (Kd) | Bio-optical model validation of spectral light and Kd. Refer to Chapter 15. |
| Sediment biogeochemistry (CANDI-AED) | Sediment flux comparisons across five environments. Refer to Chapter 12. |
| Ecology | |
| Seagrass biomass dynamics | P. sinuosa above/below-ground biomass vs depth. Refer to Chapter 16. |
| Seagrass habitat suitability (HSI) | HSI spatial patterns vs observed seagrass presence; habitat area sensitivity to Kd. Refer to Chapter 17. |
| Filter-feeder filtration | Spatial filtration patterns compared with Lemmens et al. (1996). Refer to Chapter 16. |
| Marine heatwave & SST |
Daily-average SST comparisons with satellite observations. Refer to Chapter 18. MHW Tracker. |